lemondequivient: Ces anciens soumis qui nous font peur

On parle beaucoup de la montée en puissance des marchés émergeants mais rarement en des termes aussi clairs que Joanna Chung qui dans le FT du 17 Octobre met le doigt sur le phénomène en cours. Les pays que nous contrôlions de tout notre post-colonial mépris grâce à l’arme de la dette pourraient bien avoir réussi a franchir l’obstacle. Oeil

Echaudés par les nombreuses crises financières de ces dernières années les pays endettés ont décidé de restaurer leur indépendance en se débarrassant de ce fardeau, aidés en cela par l’explosion du prix des matières premières.

In for the long haul? Why a boom is under way in emerging markets
By Joanna Chung
Published: October 17 2007 19:49 | Last updated: October 17 2007 19:49

As problems welled up for western finance this summer and the global credit squeeze took hold, emerging markets were initially jumpy. But then something remarkable began to happen. In the last few weeks, international investors have piled in to buy assets from developing nations, scooping up everything from Brazilian bonds and Chinese shares to the South African rand.

The rush has become so marked that some analysts have started to talk about a once unimaginable idea: that buying securities in a country such as Indonesia or Chile could be an appealing opportunity when there is a “flight to quality” under way. Emerging markets, in other words, have started to resemble a safe haven….[]

[]….But others wonder whether there is a more profound structural shift under way. The rise of emerging markets has gone hand in hand with a recognition that countries such as China, India and Russia are likely to play an increasingly key role in the growth outlook for the world in coming years…[]

[]…“Emerging markets are driving world growth and are shifting the centre of gravity of the world economy,” says Christian Deseglise, head of emerging markets at HSBC Investments, part of the UK-based bank. “What has changed is investor perception of emerging markets. The fact that emerging markets may be less of a source of risk than the developed markets is increasingly being recognised by investors.”

The volume of money that has flooded into the sector in recent months – even amid the wider credit squeeze – is dramatic. Brad Durham of EPFR Global, which tracks fund flows, says that of the $29bn (£14bn, €20bn) in net inflows to emerging markets so far this year, 82 per cent has arrived over the past seven weeks, “which is astounding”…….[]

Analysts are divided on the sustainability of this exuberance, some seeing it as a flight to safety and others as the beginning of a new speculative bubble. Nonetheless, investors’ new-found confidence in emerging markets does reflect one reality, namely that many emerging economies are in far better shape than ever before to weather broader financial turmoil.

While high debt was a source of vulnerability to crises in the past, emerging markets as a group are about to become net creditors for the first time, with international reserves of developing economies set to surpass the amount of foreign debt they hold.

Russe Inquiet, le Figaro souligne que les excédants commerciaux sont désormais tels que ces pays sont maintenant en mesure d’investir en masse dans les sociétés occidentales via leurs fonds souverains.